sample:2020-01-ncp
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sample:2020-01-ncp [2020/02/11 20:18] jinlong [通过拟合求解a，b] |
sample:2020-01-ncp [2020/07/12 12:07] (当前版本) |
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| - | ====== 使用逻辑回归曲线拟合2020新型冠状蔓延趋势 ====== | + | ====== 2020新型冠数据拟合预测-20200211 ====== |
| ===== 免责声明 ===== | ===== 免责声明 ===== | ||
| - | 本文仅是个人采用数学方法，使用逻辑回归曲线对新冠状病毒发展趋势进行拟合，仅为个人的学术研究， | + | 本文仅是个人采用数学方法，使用逻辑回归曲线对新冠状病毒发展趋势进行拟合， |
| 本人对最终结论不承担任何责任！任何基于本次研究结论所做出的的决策，相应责任请自行承担！ | 本人对最终结论不承担任何责任！任何基于本次研究结论所做出的的决策，相应责任请自行承担！ | ||
| ===== 逻辑回归概述 ===== | ===== 逻辑回归概述 ===== | ||
| 行 46: | 行 46: | ||
| | 20200208 | 12 | 37198 | | | 20200208 | 12 | 37198 | | ||
| | 20200209 | 13 | 40235 | | | 20200209 | 13 | 40235 | | ||
| - | | 20200210 | 14 | 40708 | | + | | 20200210 | 14 | 42708 | |
| > 数据来源：[[https://news.qq.com//zt2020/page/feiyan.htm]] | > 数据来源：[[https://news.qq.com//zt2020/page/feiyan.htm]] | ||
| 行 89: | 行 89: | ||
| 跟着上述三个公式可以求得： | 跟着上述三个公式可以求得： | ||
| - | k=y1*(2*y0*y2-y1*(y0+y2))/(y0*y2-y1*y1)=20438*(2*4515*42708-20438*(4515+42708))/(4515*42708-20438* 20438)=51665 | + | k=y1*(2*y0*y2-y1*(y0+y2))/(y0*y2-y1*y1)=20438*(2*4515*42708-20438*(4515+42708))/(4515*42708-20438* 20438)=52665 |
| - | 意思根据现有的发展趋势，未来确诊真人数可能会在51665左右 | + | 意思根据现有的发展趋势，未来确诊真人数可能会在52665左右 |
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| ^ 日期 ^ x ^ y ^ y' ^ | ^ 日期 ^ x ^ y ^ y' ^ | ||
| - | | 20200127 | 0 | 4515 | 2.34592882221052 | | + | | 20200127 | 0 | 4515 | 2.36692010505296 | |
| - | | 20200128 | 1 | 5974 | 2.03448462216902 | | + | | 20200128 | 1 | 5974 | 2.05613899029365 | |
| - | | 20200129 | 2 | 7711 | 1.7404957516532 | | + | | 20200129 | 2 | 7711 | 1.76299631285422 | |
| - | | 20200130 | 3 | 9692 | 1.46572575146498 | | + | | 20200130 | 3 | 9692 | 1.48927586262069 | |
| - | | 20200131 | 4 | 11791 | 1.2183879538261 | | + | | 20200131 | 4 | 11791 | 1.24316252856591 | |
| - | | 20200201 | 5 | 14380 | 0.952752748702858 | | + | | 20200201 | 5 | 14380 | 0.9792250462366 | |
| - | | 20200202 | 6 | 17205 | 0.69459919185034 | | + | | 20200202 | 6 | 17205 | 0.723210901538637 | |
| - | | 20200203 | 7 | 20438 | 0.423887192011424 | | + | | 20200203 | 7 | 20438 | 0.455414903281671 | |
| - | | 20200204 | 8 | 24324 | 0.116923889813808 | | + | | 20200204 | 8 | 24324 | 0.152853059086355 | |
| - | | 20200205 | 9 | 28018 | -0.1696109037764 | | + | | 20200205 | 9 | 28018 | -0.128183857000777 | |
| - | | 20200206 | 10 | 31161 | -0.418547323852014 | | + | | 20200206 | 10 | 31161 | -0.370919048021057 | |
| - | | 20200207 | 11 | 34546 | -0.702102811478451 | | + | | 20200207 | 11 | 34546 | -0.64531961974128 | |
| - | | 20200208 | 12 | 37198 | -0.944384802745482 | | + | | 20200208 | 12 | 37198 | -0.877533343664731 | |
| - | | 20200209 | 13 | 40235 | -1.25849578579138 | | + | | 20200209 | 13 | 40235 | -1.17460826810033 | |
| - | | 20200210 | 14 | 42708 | -1.561950906823 | | + | | 20200210 | 14 | 42708 | -1.45609034874044 | |
| + | |||
| + | |||
| + | 通过 y'=a+bx进行拟合，求得： | ||
| + | |||
| + | * a=2.3262864042921283 | ||
| + | * b=-0.2696928791694462 | ||
| + | |||
| + | ==== 预测未来的发展趋势 ==== | ||
| + | |||
| + | 根据 y=k/(1+e^(a+bx))可以求得未来的确诊量变化趋势如下： | ||
| + | |||
| + | ^ 日期 ^ x ^ y ^ 预计增量 ^ 实际结果 ^ 增量偏差 ^ 累计偏差 ^ | ||
| + | | **20200209** | 13 | 40283 | | 40235 | - | +47 | | ||
| + | | **20200210** | 14 | 42635 | 2370 | 42708 | -103 | -73 | | ||
| + | | 20200211 | 15 | 44660 | 1952 | 44730 | -70 | -70 | | ||
| + | | 20200212 | 16 | 46325 | 1665 | | | | | ||
| + | | 20200213 | 17 | 47682 | 1357 | | | | | ||
| + | | 20200214 | 18 | 48772 | 1090 | | | | | ||
| + | | 20200215 | 19 | 49640 | 868 | | | | | ||
| + | | 20200216 | 20 | 50323 | 683 | | | | | ||
| + | | 20200217 | 21 | 50858 | 535 | | | | | ||
| + | | 20200218 | 22 | 51273 | 415 | | | | | ||
| + | | 20200219 | 23 | 51596 | 323 | | | | | ||
| + | | 20200220 | 24 | 51844 | 248 | | | | | ||
| + | | 20200221 | 25 | 52036 | 192 | | | | | ||
| + | | 20200222 | 26 | 52183 | 147 | | | | | ||
| + | | 20200223 | 27 | 52296 | 113 | | | | | ||
| + | | 20200224 | 28 | 52383 | 87 | | | | | ||
| + | | 20200225 | 29 | 52449 | 66 | | | | | ||
| + | | 20200226 | 30 | 52500 | 51 | | | | | ||
| + | | 20200227 | 31 | 52539 | 39 | | | | | ||
| + | | 20200228 | 32 | 52569 | 30 | | | | | ||
| + | | 20200229 | 33 | 52591 | 22 | | | | | ||
| + | | 20200301 | 34 | 52609 | 18 | | | | | ||
| + | | 20200302 | 35 | 52622 | 13 | | | | | ||
| + | | 20200303 | 36 | 52632 | 10 | | | | | ||
| + | | 20200304 | 37 | 52640 | 8 | | | | | ||
| + | | 20200305 | 38 | 52646 | 6 | | | | | ||
| + | | 20200306 | 39 | 52650 | 4 | | | | | ||
| + | | 20200307 | 40 | 52654 | 4 | | | | | ||
| + | | 20200308 | 41 | 52656 | 2 | | | | | ||
| + | | 20200309 | 42 | 52658 | 2 | | | | | ||
| + | | 20200310 | 43 | 52660 | 2 | | | | | ||
| + | |||
| + | |||
| + | |||
| + | ===== 结论 ===== | ||
| + | |||
| + | * 预计最终确诊数量约为52665 | ||
| + | * 预计2月23号左右确诊数量将逐步降低到100以下 | ||
| + | * 预计3月4号左右确诊数量将下降到10个以内，疫情防疫工作将基本结束 | ||
sample/2020-01-ncp.1581423518.txt.gz · 最后更改: 2020/07/12 12:07 (外部编辑)