ml:sample:2020-01-ncp-0222
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ml:sample:2020-01-ncp-0222 [2020/02/22 12:43] jinlong 创建 |
ml:sample:2020-01-ncp-0222 [2020/07/12 12:07] (当前版本) |
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| 行 112: | 行 112: | ||
| 根据K值，可以计算得到y'=ln(k/y-1),结果如下： | 根据K值，可以计算得到y'=ln(k/y-1),结果如下： | ||
| - | ^ x ^ y' ^ | + | ^ 日期 ^ x ^ y ^ y' ^ |
| - | | 0 | 2.838947 | | + | | 20200127 | 0 | 4515 | 2.83894245534791 | |
| - | | 1 | 2.539855 | | + | | 20200128 | 1 | 5974 | 2.53985009270593 | |
| - | | 2 | 2.261422 | | + | | 20200129 | 2 | 7711 | 2.26141721235335 | |
| - | | 3 | 2.005634 | | + | | 20200130 | 3 | 9692 | 2.00562917013812 | |
| - | | 4 | 1.780020 | | + | | 20200131 | 4 | 11791 | 1.78001520275274 | |
| - | | 5 | 1.543788 | | + | | 20200201 | 5 | 14380 | 1.5437824023744 | |
| - | | 6 | 1.321564 | | + | | 20200202 | 6 | 17205 | 1.3215582034817 | |
| - | | 7 | 1.097949 | | + | | 20200203 | 7 | 20438 | 1.09794337595259 | |
| - | | 8 | 0.858361 | | + | | 20200204 | 8 | 24324 | 0.858354279580763 | |
| - | | 9 | 0.650442 | | + | | 20200205 | 9 | 28018 | 0.650435478426595 | |
| - | | 10 | 0.483803 | | + | | 20200206 | 10 | 31161 | 0.483795632552697 | |
| - | | 11 | 0.311368 | | + | | 20200207 | 11 | 34546 | 0.311360322830724 | |
| - | | 12 | 0.179535 | | + | | 20200208 | 12 | 37198 | 0.179526284947649 | |
| - | | 13 | 0.030387 | | + | | 20200209 | 13 | 40235 | 0.0303776830979355 | |
| - | | 14 | -0.090738 | | + | | 20200210 | 14 | 42708 | -0.0907476900679146 | |
| - | | 15 | -0.190230 | | + | | 20200211 | 15 | 44730 | -0.190240150207265 | |
| - | | 16 | -1.009120 | | + | | 20200212 | 16 | 59882 | -1.00913659813503 | |
| - | | 17 | -1.279781 | | + | | 20200213 | 17 | 63932 | -1.27980203297197 | |
| - | | 18 | -1.481310 | | + | | 20200214 | 18 | 66576 | -1.4813342097669 | |
| - | | 19 | -1.653360 | | + | | 20200215 | 19 | 68584 | -1.65338809355518 | |
| - | | 20 | -1.852712 | | + | | 20200216 | 20 | 70635 | -1.85274516705491 | |
| - | | 21 | -2.066579 | | + | | 20200217 | 21 | 72528 | -2.06661874556711 | |
| - | | 22 | -2.304651 | | + | | 20200218 | 22 | 74297 | -2.3047004693294 | |
| - | | 23 | -2.430194 | | + | | 20200219 | 23 | 75101 | -2.43025022039707 | |
| - | | 24 | -2.586958 | | + | | 20200220 | 24 | 75993 | -2.5870221368811 | |
| - | | 25 | -2.479082 | | + | | 20200221 | 25 | 75392 | -2.47914020079775 | |
| 通过 y'=a+bx进行拟合，求得： | 通过 y'=a+bx进行拟合，求得： | ||
| 行 149: | 行 149: | ||
| 根据 y=k/(1+e^(a+bx))可以求得未来的确诊量变化趋势如下： | 根据 y=k/(1+e^(a+bx))可以求得未来的确诊量变化趋势如下： | ||
| - | ^ 日期 ^ x ^ y ^ 预计增量 ^ 实际结果 ^ 增量偏差 ^ 累计偏差 ^ | + | ^ 日期 ^ x ^ y ^ 预计增量 ^ 实际增量 ^ 增量偏差 ^ |
| - | | 20200220 | 24 | 76140 | 248 | | | | | + | | 20200222 | 26 | 78050 | 861 | 649 | -212 | |
| - | | 20200221 | 25 | 77189 | 192 | | | | | + | | 20200223 | 27 | 78753 | 703 | 416 | -287 | |
| - | | 20200222 | 26 | 52183 | 147 | | | | | + | | 20200224 | 28 | 79326 | 573 | 517 | -56 | |
| - | | 20200223 | 27 | 52296 | 113 | | | | | + | | 20200225 | 29 | 79790 | 464 | 411 | -53 | |
| - | | 20200224 | 28 | 52383 | 87 | | | | | + | | 20200226 | 30 | 80166 | 376 | 440 | 64 | |
| - | | 20200225 | 29 | 52449 | 66 | | | | | + | | 20200227 | 31 | 80469 | 303 | 329 | 26 | |
| - | | 20200226 | 30 | 52500 | 51 | | | | | + | | 20200228 | 32 | 80714 | 245 | 430 | 185 | |
| - | | 20200227 | 31 | 52539 | 39 | | | | | + | | 20200329 | 33 | 80910 | 196 | 579 | 383 | |
| - | | 20200228 | 32 | 52569 | 30 | | | | | + | | 20200301 | 34 | 81069 | 159 | 206 | 47 | |
| - | | 20200229 | 33 | 52591 | 22 | | | | | + | | 20200302 | 35 | 81196 | 127 | 128 | 1 | |
| - | | 20200301 | 34 | 52609 | 18 | | | | | + | | 20200303 | 36 | 81298 | 102 | 120 | 18 | |
| - | | 20200302 | 35 | 52622 | 13 | | | | | + | | 20200304 | 37 | 81380 | 82 | 143 | 61 | |
| - | | 20200303 | 36 | 52632 | 10 | | | | | + | | 20200305 | 38 | 81446 | 66 | 145 | 79 | |
| - | | 20200304 | 37 | 52640 | 8 | | | | | + | | 20200306 | 39 | 81498 | 52 | 103 | 51 | |
| - | | 20200305 | 38 | 52646 | 6 | | | | | + | | 20200307 | 40 | 81541 | 43 | 46 | 3 | |
| - | | 20200306 | 39 | 52650 | 4 | | | | | + | | 20200308 | 41 | 81575 | 34 | 45 | 11 | |
| - | | 20200307 | 40 | 52654 | 4 | | | | | + | | 20200309 | 42 | 81602 | 27 | 20 | -7 | |
| - | | 20200308 | 41 | 52656 | 2 | | | | | + | | 20200310 | 43 | 81623 | 21 | 31 | 10 | |
| - | | 20200309 | 42 | 52658 | 2 | | | | | + | | 20200311 | 44 | 81641 | 18 | 25 | 7 | |
| - | | 20200310 | 43 | 52660 | 2 | | | | | + | | 20200312 | 45 | 81655 | 14 | 11 | -3 | |
| + | | 20200313 | 46 | 81666 | 11 | 18 | 7 | | ||
| + | | 20200314 | 47 | 81675 | 9 | | | | ||
| + | | 20200315 | 48 | 81682 | 7 | | | | ||
| + | | 20200316 | 49 | 81688 | 6 | | | | ||
| + | |||
| 行 175: | 行 181: | ||
| ===== 结论 ===== | ===== 结论 ===== | ||
| - | * 预计最终确诊数量约为52665 | + | * 预计最终确诊数量约为81711 |
| - | * 预计2月23号左右确诊数量将逐步降低到100以下 | + | * 预计3月5号左右确诊数量将逐步降低到100以下 |
| - | * 预计3月4号左右确诊数量将下降到10个以内，疫情防疫工作将基本结束 | + | * 预计3月15号左右确诊数量将下降到10个以内，疫情防疫工作将基本结束 |
ml/sample/2020-01-ncp-0222.1582346603.txt.gz · 最后更改: 2020/07/12 12:07 (外部编辑)